September multifamily starts fall 25.9% year over year; permits top starts by 154,000 annualized units

Multifamily housing starts ran at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 349,000 in September, down 7.2% from August and 25.9% year over year, according to HUD and Census Bureau data released Tuesday.

Multifamily building permits stood at a 503,000 rate, up 5.9% month over month and 1% above September 2025, leaving permitted construction 154,000 annualized units above the September starts rate.

Multifamily completions came in at a 339,000 rate, up 14.9% from August but 20.4% below a year earlier; Multifamily Dive reported the figure was roughly in line with July's.

Total private housing starts of 1.2 million were 5.2% below August's revised rate and 7.4% below September 2025. Single-family starts ran at 859,000, 4.6% below the revised August figure but 2.6% higher than a year earlier.

A permit is not a start. Leaselock chief economist Greg Willett told Multifamily Dive that developers describe projects sitting ready. "We've got planned properties that are ready to go. We could start tomorrow, but it's a question of, is the money there," he said, characterizing their view.

Willett said improving rent growth would historically tend to trigger additional starts, then identified the offsetting constraint. "At the same time, man, look at interest rates," he said. "That's downward pressure preventing you from starting." The report attributes rising homebuilding prices to high financing costs, elevated fuel prices and tariffs, citing experts.

Regionally, the South was the only area to post a positive year-over-year starts number, up 11% overall and 8.8% for single-family. The Northeast was weakest at down 30.9%, followed by the West at down 25.4% and the Midwest at down 19.4%. In each of those regions the report said single-family outperformed the overall figure that includes apartments.

If a 349,000 annualized starts pace held from here, deliveries several years out would run below September's 339,000 completions rate — the reverse of the pattern in this report, where the permit rate sits well above starts. Which way the pipeline resolves is Willett's open question. "So, are these projects going to go or not? I'm not sure," he said.