S&P survey: 54% of social housing providers consider public debt within a year

Fifty-four percent of social housing providers surveyed by S&P Global Ratings are considering public debt in the next year. Most cite plans to buy or build housing, according to a survey of 30 providers reported by Bisnow on Oct. 12.

Eighty-six percent of the surveyed providers expect federal funding to be flat or lower next year, and about 90% expect operating costs to rise. S&P said most public housing authorities and nonprofit developers maintained stable operating margins through 2025 and the first half of 2026, but the agency expects them to take on more debt to fund portfolio growth.

Between January 2025 and August 2026, 24 social housing providers tapped the public markets, with about $2.9 billion of debt across 63 new issuances, or roughly $46 million per issuance. Issuers based in California, Texas and Washington produced the largest share of activity, according to the report.

S&P's median rating across 40 public housing agencies and 11 nonprofit developers is A+. A+ indicates strong capacity to meet financial commitments but greater susceptibility to adverse economic conditions than AA or AAA borrowers. Four providers were upgraded and two downgraded since January 2025; two are on track for upgrades: the Philadelphia Housing Authority and the Housing Authority of Snohomish County. National Core, a California nonprofit with roughly 10,600 units, is the only provider carrying a negative outlook on an A+ rating, indicating a possible downgrade.

Federal policy has expanded several housing programs. The One Big Beautiful Bill Act expanded the low-income housing tax credit program, estimated to finance 1.2 million additional affordable rental units over the next decade. The 21st Century Road to Housing Act added 100,000 units to the Rental Assistance Demonstration program, which lets public housing agencies partner with private developers through Section 8 contracts. In August, HUD updated its Section 18 guidance to make it easier to reposition aging assets and tap into voucher programs.