NYC multifamily dollar volume falls 23.3% in Q3 as large deals halve

New York City multifamily dollar volume fell 23.3% year over year in the third quarter to $1.84 billion, the lowest quarterly figure since the first quarter of 2024. For the first nine months, sales still rose 7.9% to $6.99 billion across 1,044 transactions, up 11.5% in deal count, according to data compiled by Ariel Property Advisors and reported by Connect CRE.

Nearly all of the quarterly decline came from the largest trades, where four deals of $50 million or more closed for $388.7 million combined. A year earlier, eight such deals totaled $999.2 million, a 61% drop in dollar value alongside a halved deal count.

Where the dollars went is lopsided by regulatory status: buildings with 75% or more free-market units accounted for 63.1% of third-quarter dollar volume. Buildings that are 75% or more rent-stabilized took 19.2%, and affordable housing took 8.3%. The free-market cohort drew more than three times the dollar share of the heavily rent-stabilized one.

“Last quarter we continued to see a clear divergence in performance across multifamily property types,” said Shimon Shkury, president and founder of Ariel. “Free-market properties and subsidized affordable housing with predictable cash flows continue to attract strong investor interest, while rent-stabilized assets face significant valuation pressure from regulatory constraints and financing challenges.”