Manhattan investment sales fall 27% in Q3 to $2.5B as deal count rises

Manhattan investment sales volume fell 27 percent in the third quarter to $2.5 billion, the second consecutive quarterly decline, according to Avison Young data reported by Commercial Observer.

The full-year dollar pace remains above 2025 levels but below the 10-year average.

Transactions rose 22 percent year over year across the first three quarters to 273 sales, putting the borough on track for more than 360 this year, per the report. The report says smaller deal sizes weighed on dollar totals. Across New York City, volume rose 13 percent over the first three quarters to $16.2 billion.

Office accounted for nearly half of Manhattan's third-quarter dollar volume even as it fell 23 percent from the spring.

Multifamily was the year-to-date outperformer: dollar volume up 74 percent and average price per square foot up 34 percent from a year earlier. Retail posted the largest quarterly dollar increase among the asset classes, up 54 percent over the prior quarter. The report ties the gain to record-low vacancies and an ongoing run of large owner-user purchases. The sector remains below last year's pace. Conversion sales rose 27 percent over the quarter. Development was the laggard, with year-to-date dollar volume down 17 percent from the same stretch of 2025 and down 54 percent over the quarter.

REITs' share of dollar volume rose from 7.3 percent in 2025 to 36 percent so far this year, per the report. Private buyers still hold the lead, while international and foreign buyers continued to pull back. Higher interest rates, geopolitical uncertainty and rising Treasury yields remain sources of hesitation, according to the report.

Brandon Polakoff, a principal and head of New York City investment sales at Avison Young, told Commercial Observer the firm would still have "our record year this year, even through all of this," adding: "There are good opportunities, and there is capital out there for the right opportunities." He offered a West Chelsea building he was hired to sell as evidence of how fast the underlying demand moved: "when I looked at it a year ago, it was almost entirely vacant," he said. "Now it's entirely full, with very high rents and headquarters."

Hitting the 360-transaction pace requires at least 87 more sales in the fourth quarter.