Hines: half of global real estate markets enter buying window

Hines Research has moved about half of the roughly 800 global real estate markets it tracks into a potential buying window, according to IREI's coverage of the new report 'The New Age of Investment Access.' The firm says private real estate has absorbed the repricing that began in late 2021. The current cycle appears to have bottomed in 2025, and values are already improving in parts of Europe and Asia.

The call comes with a historical benchmark. Since the late 1970s Hines counts three major real estate cycles, each running 13 to 16 years. Recovery periods produced average annual total returns of nearly 12 percent. With private equity, infrastructure and private credit still comparatively expensive, Hines argues private real estate is the relative value among private-market asset classes.

Housing is Hines' highest-conviction sector. The firm estimates a net shortage of about 6.5 million units across the key developed economies it tracks. Construction runs well below recent peaks, and the report says that gap should support rents and income in markets with durable demand. The report also looks at the expanding role of individual investors — a group that, Hines notes, holds about half of global wealth.

Half of 800 markets is a selective entry, not a rising tide. The 6.5 million-unit shortage supports the housing call. The 12 percent average return during recoveries gives allocators a historical yardstick. Hines dates the bottom to 2025, which puts the recovery in its early phase.