Commercial Observer column forecasts more than 30% rise in NYC development site sales

A Commercial Observer column published Oct. 20 projects that New York City development site sales volume will rise more than 30% this year from 2025. The author writes that the figure rests on activity the team is tracking, and the actual statistics are expected shortly.

A Chelsea development site the author's team is marketing drew more than 80 offers, the column says. The author calls that the greatest number of offers the team has seen on a single development site since 2015, and says pricing reached approximately 15% above the high end of its original expectations. The column notes construction costs, financing expenses and regulatory requirements remain challenging.

The buyer pool is also widening beyond Manhattan's usual developer list, according to the column. Established developers from Brooklyn, Queens and the Bronx are looking to complete their first Manhattan projects, bringing capital and, in some cases, different underwriting than the incumbents. The author writes that the most aggressive buyer is not necessarily the obvious one.

The column describes the Department of City Planning as apparently receptive to rezonings, and says that in several situations the additional density the department appears willing to consider has been substantially greater than the team anticipated. On that basis, the author says the team is increasingly advising certain owners not to sell their development sites immediately.

Rezoning is already a live variable in city housing policy: this publication reported in August on a five-year plan for 17,675 Staten Island homes.